Lisa Henderson
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November. The month of turkey and harbinger of the closing hectic weeks of the year, when people look toward gift-giving,
family, food, festivities, and optimism all rolled into a very short period of time. While I never willingly let the years
go by, this year I am looking forward to a New Year. I'm not a fan of the continual navel-gazing of the media and politicians
about our chances for economic recovery on a daily basis, when common sense would seem to dictate that these things just need
time to swing back. So, I'm not expecting a true Mummer's strut toward a miracle in 2010. But if you take the forecasts with
a grain of salt, there are signs we could dance on New Year's Day.
A July 2009 Visiongain report projects the U.S. CRO market will grow 11% a year from now until 2018. A Frost & Sullivan October
2009 Overview of the Contract Research and Manufacturing Services Report finds that the market earned revenues of over $10.9
billion in 2009 and estimates this to reach $22.8 billion in 2016, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.1%.
So, Visiongain and Frost & Sullivan agree that 11% growth is the magic number for the next few years.
Quick Google comparison: The U.S. aluminum industry's CAGR is 5.4% vs. biotech in Malaysia at 21%. The global hybrid car market
is 12% vs. China's footwear market at 7%.
If you believe the reports, don't go East just for the footwear market. Stick with what you know and stay with the CROs. Frost
& Sullivan forecasts clinical CROs in China to grow 18% annually, with late-stage CRO revenues to reach $240 million by 2012.
And while there is more focus on China, remember that the CRO market here is still pretty young. When I attended the DIA Annual Meeting and sat in on "Training of Investigators and IRB Members in Asia," Sandra Garrett,
PhD, executive chairman of Global Research Services, offered practical food-for-thought for those considering China, including:
a lack of standardization of and experience among IRBs, considerable variations in local governments, concerns regarding ethical
standards and patient informed consent, and minimal experience at the SFDA (the Chinese regulatory authority) in overseeing
large-scale clinical trials.
If a March 2009 Business Insights report that estimates the Global CRO Market to be $35 billion by 2013 is correct, then CROs
in China currently capture $145 million, representing less than 2% of the global market.
Grain of salt
All of these forecasts must be taken with a healthy dose of reality. Remember back to predictions made this time last year
(I'm writing this in October) that forecast all good for 2009 and beyond. Then the market...tanked. Forecasters and analysts
stopped revising and paraphrased everything ever after with "that report was completed before the current economic situation."
Hopefully, this situation has abated. Hopefully, we won't continue to see losses and instead see a world where incremental
moves forward are still considered positive. Hopefully, we can move out of the dark and into the light.
Lisa Henderson Editor-in-Chief email: lhenderson@advanstar.com
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http://www.appliedclinicaltrialsonline.com/
