Paul Bleicher

For example, the personal computer (the IBM PC) seemed to have appeared out of nowhere in 1981. Only one year earlier, most professional offices were using dedicated word processing machines, and most home documents were produced on electric typewriters. Within a few years, the desktop PC had all but replaced office word processors, and many nontechnical people had PCs or Macintosh computers at home. But for those who know the industry, the desktop PC revolution has been a slow, steady evolution that has included the integration of many different trends.

Aspects of the PC as we know it today began developing in 1964 at Stanford Research Institute, where the computer mouse and a Windows-like operating system were invented. In 1976, the first consumer computers—the Apple I and II, the TRS-80, Atari 800, and Commodore Pet (the models for the first PC)—began to be sold, but mostly to hobbyists. Many of the features of these experiments disappeared from the scene after they were first introduced, only to reappear years and even decades later in the PC (see The Mother of All Demos, http:// http://www.old-computers.com/history/detail.asp?n=59&t=1).

Most people who don't work in information technology have the sense that we have reached a relatively stable stage in the evolution of the PC. Although the modern desktop is much more robust and functional than in the past, it has more or less the same "technology stack" as the first consumer computers (e.g., the Commodore Pet or Apple I).

PHOTOGRAPHY: GETTY IMAGES

The entire environment of the desktop is contained and could actually be operated independently without any network connection to another computer.

Evolutionary pressures

As desktop computing rapidly grew increasingly complex through more sophisticated programs, operating systems, and networking, the cost of corporate computer system support grew exponentially, and the frustrations of end users followed. These issues, multiplied by thousands of users, have driven corporate IT leaders toward radically different solutions for the desktop computer to control costs, improve the quality of the computer experience for the end user, and increase efficiency in the workforce.

The changing nature of the workforce creates evolutionary pressure on the desktop. The increasingly distributed, global, and mobile workforce may work in one office on one day and on another continent the next. Modern workers demand access to their applications and data, not only from any desk in any country, but on airplanes, on their mobile devices, and at home. Increasingly, groups also want to work collaboratively on documents, often in real time. A single user desktop with local applications and data simply doesn't support this working style.

As more and more crucial data becomes electronic, concern over security and privacy also increases. The current decentralized, distributed nature of data and documents makes it very difficult to track and control their purposeful or accidental distribution. When multiple versions of a document or data are present in many different places, it is impossible to maintain quality and consistency. In addition, the increasing ubiquity of laptops has led to the risks of data loss and security breaches from their theft.

We are currently in a maelstrom of software, hardware, and network solutions that are being designed and implemented to address these evolutionary pressures. Some of them turn our entire concept of computing upside down, but none of them have been established as the clear direction forward. It is likely that over the next five to 10 years, some combination of them along with concepts we haven't even yet considered will emerge as the next new mainstream direction in desktop computers. Interestingly, many of these concepts have their origins in the mainframe era of the 1960s.